ashthomas//blog: New Wizards of Armageddon

ashthomas//blog

Thursday, October 21, 2004

New Wizards of Armageddon

Steve Clemons has written an interesting article comparing the decision-making process leading up to the Iraq War with the method of risk-analysis and threat-assessment done by the RAND Corporation during the Cold War. In particular, he mentions the mind-games that the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. played against each other, and how it is reflected in Saddam's behaviour in the nineties:
Saddam behaved quite rationally, given his circumstances. He didn't want to prompt an Iranian attack and didn't have the ability to counter-attack, so the only rational course for him was to make it look like he had some ability to inflict nasty consequences on Iran and any invaders.

Any junior-level strategist with the vaguest knowledge of the ferocity of the Iran-Iraq War and the competition between these two rivals for regional hegemony would have known that Saddam perceived Iran as a clear and present danger. After the United States, the United Kingdom and other powers pushed Saddam back to his borders and disarmed him -- coupled with sanctions, no-fly zones, and U.N. weapons inspections (ad hoc though they were) -- Saddam's objective was to be a troublemaker just enough to keep Iran deterred but not enough to prompt another punitive engagement by the world's great powers.

Despite a small error of fact (Richard Perle is misidentified as Albert Wohlstetter's son-in-law), this is a very thought-provoking piece.

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