Possible Bush Cabinet Changes

Alexis Simendinger in the National Journal looks at the possible changes in the Bush Cabinet if Bush wins. Of particular interest to me is the discussion of the foreign policy/national security team:

Defense Secretary -- It is hard to find anyone inside the White House or close to the political center at the Pentagon who believes that Bush will ask Donald Rumsfeld to leave the job he's held twice in his life, in the middle of a war, and even despite his 72 years. ...

Secretary of State -- The more-conventional wisdom that Powell and his deputy, Richard Armitage, are poised to depart is correct, according to a former White House official. ... Although plenty of reports have speculated that Condoleezza Rice could succeed Powell, Rice's current and former colleagues insist she has little interest in the administrative challenges within the State Department culture.

National Security Adviser -- Leading candidates to succeed Rice, no matter where she might go, include her deputy, Stephen Hadley, and Robert Blackwill, Rice's coordinator for strategic planning at the National Security Council.

Director of Central Intelligence/Director of National Intelligence -- The job of director of central intelligence is being turned into the (theoretically) more powerful post of director of national intelligence. The consensus speculation is that Porter Goss will move up, leaving Bush to fill the CIA post again. ... Under the scenario in which Goss is promoted, the betting is on Frances Fragos Townsend, the president's White House adviser on homeland security, to become the first female director of central intelligence.

Attorney General -- John Ashcroft, while useful to the president among his socially conservative base in an election year, may be expendable after re-election to appease Republicans who believe he has almost single-handedly hurt the party's reputation on immigration and civil liberties. ...

Homeland Security Secretary -- ... Smart and knowledgeable sources believe the odds are that [Tom Ridge] departs but that external events could change his mind. If Ridge goes, his undersecretary, Asa Hutchinson, has been publicly eager for the top job.

Also now up on the National Journal site is the Carl Cannon article on the possible Kerry cabinet.